What are the real H-1B lottery odds?

The single-year selection rate has ranged from about 25% to 46% across FY2021-FY2026. But because you can usually enter the lottery in multiple years across OPT and STEM OPT, your cumulative odds of being selected at least once are much higher than any single year.

How does the FY2027 weighted H-1B lottery work?

Starting FY2027, if random selection is needed, each beneficiary is entered into the pool a number of times equal to their OEWS wage level: Level IV gets 4 entries, Level III gets 3, Level II gets 2, Level I gets 1. Higher-paid roles get materially better odds.

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Your real H-1B odds.

Everyone quotes the scary single-year number. The truth is your cumulative odds across every attempt you have, your master’s second draw, the new FY2027 wage weighting, and the lottery-free doors for your country. See all of it.

Not legal advice. Estimates from public USCIS data; confirm anything status-related with your DSO or attorney.

Your profile

US degree level

Country of citizenship

Lottery attempts you have left: 3

Roughly one March lottery per year of OPT + STEM OPT runway.

Your role's wage level (FY2027 weighted lottery)

Since FY2027, a Level IV role gets 4 lottery entries vs 1 for Level I. Higher pay = better odds.

Selection-rate scenario

Odds of selection across 3 attempts

76out of 100

38% in a single year, compounding to 76% over 3.

38%

by yr 1

61%

by yr 2

76%

by yr 3

•Cumulative odds assume 3 independent attempts at roughly today's selection rate. The single-year rate has swung between 25% and 46% over FY2021-FY2026.
•A US master's or higher gets a second draw against the 20,000 master's cap (two-step selection), which lifts the per-year odds above a bachelor's-only profile.
•FY2027 weighted selection is in effect: a Level 2 role gets 2 entries in the pool, vs 4 for a Level IV. Aiming for higher-wage roles now materially raises your odds.

Other doors for a India citizen

No country-specific path, so it's H-1B (lottery) or O-1. Cap-exempt employers are your lottery-free route.

H-1BLottery

Widest employer acceptance; the default path.

O-1No lottery

No lottery, file any time of year. Open to every nationality.

You have 1 lottery-free option. Most students never check.

Skip the lottery entirely: see cap-exempt employers who hire H-1B year-roundFind them

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The single-year number lies

A 30% year sounds brutal. But if you can enter in three years across OPT and STEM OPT, your chance of being selected at least once is 1 minus 0.7 cubed, about 66%. The lottery feels less like a coin flip and more like a process you manage over time.

FY2027 changed the game

The lottery is no longer flat-random. Each beneficiary now gets pool entries equal to their wage level, so a Level IV role has four times the entries of a Level I. Negotiating into a higher wage level is now one of the few levers you actually control.

H-1B selection rates, FY2021 to FY2026

Selected divided by eligible registrations, from the USCIS Electronic Registration Historical Data table. The swing is real, which is why a single year is a bad way to think about it.

Fiscal year	Eligible	Selected	Rate
FY2026beneficiary-centric	343,981	120,141	35%
FY2025first beneficiary-centric year	470,342	135,137	29%
FY2024record registrations, fraud-inflated	758,994	188,400	25%
FY2023	474,421	127,600	27%
FY2022	301,447	131,924	44%
FY2021	269,424	124,415	46%

Registration fee is $215 per beneficiary (FY2026+). Cap-exempt employers are excluded from these counts and the lottery entirely.

Improve every odd you can control.

SundayApply tilts the inputs in your favor: it scores every employer for sponsorship and green-card history, flags cap-exempt and E-Verify status, and tailors applications so you land the higher-wage roles that now win the weighted lottery.

Start free See cap-exempt employers